The Group 1 Racing Post Trophy brings the curtain down on the 2016 flat racing season this weekend.
A 1 mile race for juvenile colts and fillies, the Racing Post Trophy is run over the straight at Doncaster. The race offers a £200,000 guaranteed prize fund and attracts horses that came close in Group 1s earlier in the season or won at Group 2 or 3 level.
The Racing Post Trophy has a big influence on setting the odds of the next season's Guineas races.
Racing Post Trophy trends
Coming hot on the heels of a series of other Group level races for juveniles, punters usually have a good read on the field for the Racing Post Trophy. This is reflected in the accuracy of the betting markets when it comes to predicting winners, with antepost favourites winning four of the last five editions of the race.
Winners of the Racing Post Trophy typically arrive from lower rated races. While previous wins at Group 2 or 3 level are handy, a win in any race prior to the trip to Doncaster is an advantage. All of the last five winners won their race prior to the Racing Post Trophy.
The arrival of horses from lower rated races occasionally throws a spanner in the works. For example Marcel won the Racing Post Trophy at odds of 33/1 in 2015 after winning a Plus10 race at Newcastle. Although there are no specific trial races for the Racing Post Trophy, the winners of the Autumn Stakes and Royal Lodge Stakes are worth a look if they make the final field.
2016 Racing Post Trophy field
Capri will start the Racing Post Trophy as antepost favourite, trading just over Evens. He's done all his racing in Ireland, and won a Group 2 last time out. One area of concern for this horse is that he's only run over softer ground, and the one time he ran on a track with faster sections was the only time he failed to win a race. With this in mind he should be treated with caution.
Yucatan finished second to Capri last time out, losing out by under a length. However, unlike the favourite he has won over faster ground, taking a mile race at the Curragh by a head in August. At 9/2 he'll pay out on each way bets if he places.
Rivet rounds off a trio of Irish-trained racehorses. He's the only one of the top rated racehorses in this field to have won at Doncaster, but ran a poor race in the Dewhurst Stakes last time out. Bookies have him at 6/1, which makes him an option if you think he will place.
If you're looking for a long shot, then Raheen House is an option. He won at York over a mile last time out, and has never finished outside the places in his career. At 14/1 he'll provide a good payout even if he only manages a place.
2016 Racing Post Trophy tip
Yucatan offers the best combination of form and price in the field, with Capri looking like a risky proposition as he faces a run on faster ground for the first time. If you feel like taking a gamble, a small stake on Raheen House is the way to go.