betHQ Editor
September 26, 2026
The Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch goes off at 16:20 on Sunday 27 September at the Curragh, a Premier Handicap run over two miles and 170 yards and worth €500,000, on going given as good to yielding. Thirty-three go to post, the biggest field we have ever previewed, and the last three winners were returned at 7/1, 7/2 and 150/1.
A Race Built to Be Hard
A Premier Handicap is built to be hard: the handicapper’s whole job is to give every runner the same chance by adjusting the weight each carries, and here he has had thirty-three to level out. The official ratings span more than twenty pounds, and on our reading of the form sixteen of the thirty-three have too much to find to be realistic winners. That is not a complaint — it is what a handicap this size looks like from the inside.
The firms we track price twenty-two of the thirty-three, so a third of this field carries no market price to be set against. And the Curragh is riding two ways today: the sprinters on the straight course get yielding ground, while this race, on the round course, is on the quicker good to yielding.
Who’s Fancied — and Why
The Reverend is favourite at 5/1, which tells you how open the market thinks this is. He is a five-year-old for Willie Mullins, whose yard has been winning better than a quarter of its runners lately, and he has won twice in the recent form we can see. This is his first go at two miles on the level after a career over hurdles.
Sky Captain is next at 11/2 for trainer Joseph O’Brien, a winner and twice a runner-up recently, though out of the frame last time. Tim Toe is close behind at 13/2, and he is the one we want; the case is below.
This race has a habit of embarrassing confident opinions. Last year’s winner, Puturhandstogether, is back for the same trainer and jockey at 22/1, and Chally Chute, who chased him home at 66/1, runs again.
What the Racing Press Are Saying
Alex Harris, previewing the race for the form analysts Timeform, calls it an ultra-competitive renewal and sides with The Reverend, who ran a good fourth, beaten a length, at Leopardstown on his return. He also notes that last year’s winner ran no sort of race in the Galway Hurdle.
The Irish Times reports that Valiancy‘s rider, James Doyle, is flying in from New York on race day for this one booking — a sign, it suggests, of how much is expected of the William Haggas-trained four-year-old, quoted at 11/1.
Our Read
We are not with the market here. The betting makes The Reverend favourite; our reading of the form does not put him near the top of this field. He was out of the first three last time and on Racing Post Ratings he has several pounds to find on the best of these. His yard is flying, but at the shortest price in the race we want more.
The horse our reading of the form makes the best in the race is Tim Toe, and you can have him at 13/2. He has won two of his last four starts and was placed on the most recent, which counts for more than it sounds: twenty-four of these thirty-three finished out of the first three last time out. His Racing Post Rating is within a handful of pounds of the best figure in the field.
The case against is as plain. He has not run since the middle of June, so he comes back cold after three months and more off, and his trainer’s yard has been quiet of late. And thirty-two rivals have been weighted to have the same chance he has. The two halves answer different questions: the ratings say how well he has run, the layoff asks whether he brings that to the Curragh cold. Back him and you are trusting the figures ahead of recent evidence, because there is none — a reasonable trade, not a free one.
One bet is all this race justifies, and we would rather say so than pad the page. We did look for a second, and there were horses here worth an argument. But none came through with any conviction, and a second tip picked to fill a space is not a tip.
How to Bet This Race
Tim Toe is Our Selection at 13/2, and the bet is each-way. Confidence is Speculative, and that is the race type talking as much as the horse: a thirty-three-runner Premier Handicap is the hardest sort of race we cover, and it holds the label down whatever we think of him.
Thirty-three runners puts this race on the most generous rung of the each-way ladder. In a handicap this size our standard terms are four places at a quarter of the odds, the first four home rather than the first three; terms differ between firms, so check yours before you stake. A £10 each-way bet costs £20: £10 to win, £10 for the place. Win and it returns £101.25 in all, a profit of £81.25. Finish in the first four and the place half alone returns £26.25 on that £20 — £6.25 up without winning the race. Out of the first four and the £20 has gone.
This is the kind of bet Position Payout was built for: bet365 show the exact return for every finishing position on their own racecard, so you can see what fourth place is worth before you stake.
Horse Racing Position Payout
The higher the finish, the more you win! To qualify for this offer, place qualifying pre-race bets on any horse race that offers the Position Payout market. This offer is available pre-race on selected Horse Racing events before the start of the first race at the relevant meeting. New and eligible customers only. Bet restrictions, and T&Cs apply.
Read More
The firms we track quote twenty-two of the thirty-three, and where they do quote, they do not all agree, so it pays to shop around.
What Other Tipsters Are Saying
We gather the newspaper and online tipsters’ selections each race-day morning, and any for the Curragh 16:20 appear below once published — all their selections, not only their headline fancies.
| Nap | 
Time
|
Racecourse
|
Tipster
|
Best odds |
|---|
Indicated odds were updated on 2026-10-16 4:38:03 UTC. Please note that
odds are subject to change.
Tips cannot guarantee betting success. Review tipsters performance and bet responsibly.
Tips cannot guarantee betting success. Review tipsters performance and bet responsibly.
How to Watch the Irish Cesarewitch Live
If you would rather watch through a bookmaker, bet365 stream At The Races and Racing TV live to anyone with a funded account, this race included.
Watch at the races and racing TV live
#AD – Watch EVERY race in the UK and Ireland, live at bet365. bet365 stream all races shown on At The Races and Racing TV so you’ll never miss a second of the action! Only available to eligible customers who have a funded account or who have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Registration required.
Read More
On television the Irish Cesarewitch is on Racing TV, a premium subscription channel. Free-to-air coverage had not been announced for this race at the time of writing.
The Verdict
Tim Toe at 13/2 is Our Selection and takes an each-way stake, with four places to aim at. Confidence is Speculative — a thirty-three-runner Premier Handicap sets a limit on what anyone should claim about any horse in it, and this one has not been seen since June.
That layoff is the risk, and not a small one in a race where thirty-two rivals have been weighted to hold him. If it puts you off, leaving this one alone is a reasonable answer, and there is no second tip here because nothing else made a case with any conviction.
Odds correct at time of writing, 2026-09-26 17:00 UTC. Prices change — always check the live table before betting. All tips and opinions here are our own. No bookmaker mentioned in this article has endorsed them. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
How we pick our tips
Every preview on betHQ starts from the betting market, not against it. The price a horse is trading at is the single best guide anyone has to its chance — it reflects the form book, the money and the opinion of people who do this for a living. So our first question is not “who wins?” but “does our own reading of the form agree with the market, and where doesn’t it?”
We rate every runner on five things: its Racing Post Rating, its Topspeed figure, its Official Rating, how it has run in its last three starts, and how it has fared against the other horses in this race when they have met. We then compare that order with the betting order. Handicaps work differently, because in those the official handicapper sets each horse’s weight from its official rating — so there we adjust the ratings for the weight carried on the day and leave the official rating out, rather than counting the same thing twice.
Most of the time we agree with the market about the likeliest winner, and we say so — across British and Irish racing the favourite wins roughly a third of all races. How often varies a great deal by the type of race, though. Favourites win appreciably more often in conditions races, where horses run off set weights, than in handicaps, where the handicapper’s whole job is to give every runner the same chance; and in the biggest fields their strike rate falls away sharply. That is our first tip. Where we differ is usually further down the betting, and if a horse looks better to us than its price suggests, and is good enough on ratings to be a realistic winner, it becomes our second tip. Some races only get one tip. That is fine.
We also tell you how we would back each one, because the bet you place matters as much as the horse you pick. A short-priced favourite and a 12/1 outsider call for different approaches, and the right bookmaker offer can improve either.
Two things to be clear about. The weightings above are our judgement, not a proven formula — we do not claim to beat the market over time, and nobody should treat our tips as a way to make money. And the prices we quote are the ones showing when we write, the evening before racing; they move, sometimes a lot, so always check the live table before you back anything. Please bet responsibly.
and then