betHQ Editor
September 28, 2026
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes is off at 15:55 on Tuesday 29 September at Cork, over a mile, two furlongs and 90 yards. It is a Listed race — the tier just below Group company — worth €50,000, and twelve three-year-olds go to post on yielding to soft ground. Most races hide a disagreement somewhere. This one does not.
Who’s Fancied — and Why
Summer Is Tomorrow is the favourite at 11/4. Joseph Patrick O’Brien’s colt, ridden by J M Sheridan, won two starts back and was second in each of the two before that.
Action is next at 9/2. Aidan O’Brien’s colt, partnered by Wayne Lordan, tops this field on Racing Post Ratings and is the quickest of the twelve on Topspeed, the figure that rates a horse against the clock. The catch: he has not made the first three in his last five runs.
Shaihaan at 5/1 is Donnacha Aidan O’Brien’s gelding, under Chris Hayes. He has won over today’s trip, though not at Cork, and has not run for two months. Behind him, Caught U Sleeping at 13/2 has a section of her own below; beyond her the market stretches to 8/1 and bigger.
Level Weights, and One Exception
Every runner is three years old, which takes weight-for-age — the allowance a younger horse gets from an older one — out of the race. The nine colts and geldings all shoulder 9st 5lb, and the three fillies get the standard 5lb off.
One horse is different, and it is the best fact on the card. Caught U Sleeping carries 3lb more than the other two fillies, because the conditions add 3lb for a Listed win this season — and she won the Naas Oaks Trial, a Listed race, in May. She is the only runner in the field carrying a penalty, so nobody else here has won at this level or above this season.
Even so she carries 2lb less than the colts and geldings — the filly’s allowance is bigger than the penalty. In an otherwise level-weights race, that is unusually clean information.
Our Read of the Race
The honest position: we cannot separate our view from the market’s at the top of this race. The horses the betting likes best are the horses our reading of the form likes best. There is no hidden value angle here, and we would rather say so than manufacture one.
Summer Is Tomorrow is the tip. Our reading of the form makes him the best horse in the race, and at 11/4 the betting agrees — that agreement is the case for him, not a hedge. He is seven pounds behind Action on Racing Post Ratings; what puts him in front is the form book, where he has been winning and placing and Action has not.
Against him, he was out of the places on his latest start. Then there is the ground: yielding to soft, with rain falling, and it could get softer. We hold no going record for any of these twelve, so it is a question for all of them and we cannot answer it for any. The figures say how good he has been; the last run and the ground ask whether that travels to Cork today. Back him and you trust the body of the form over its newest line — reasonable, not free.
Caught U Sleeping at 13/2 is the second tip, and the case for her does not sit neatly. She has won a Listed race — the 3lb is the proof. Our own figures still put her nine pounds off the best Racing Post Rating here. A Listed win is evidence of what a horse has done; a rating is a judgement of how well she did it, and the two point different ways.
She is not a horse the betting has overlooked — the market rates her one of the best few here and so do we; we are taking the bigger price. She has won over this trip and comes back quickly, ten days on, under Colin Keane. She was out of the places last time too.
How to Bet This Race
Field size first, because it sets the terms. Twelve runners and no handicap, so bookmakers pay three places at a fifth of the odds. Terms vary, so check your own firm’s.
The Likeliest Winner: Summer Is Tomorrow, 11/4, a win single, confidence Strong — our reading of the form makes him the best horse in the race, the betting agrees, and the only thing against him is one unplaced run.
The return is modest, so see it in cash. A £20 win single at 11/4 returns £75, a profit of £55. Beaten, and the £20 is gone.
A boost on winnings is worth most when the winnings are small, which is what a short price makes them. William Hill are running a daily racing winnings boost that suits this.
Boost the odds on one Horse Racing bet every day at William Hill
#Ad • 18+ • You can boost your odds on one horse or greyhound racing bet every day at William Hill. T&Cs apply. www.gambleaware.org
Read More
The Each-Way Angle: Caught U Sleeping, 13/2, confidence Speculative — she has won at this level, but our figures put her nine pounds off the best Racing Post Rating in the field, and it is that gap that sets our confidence here.
The each-way arithmetic is worth spelling out. A £10 each-way bet costs £20 — £10 to win, £10 for the place. Three places at a fifth of the odds means the place half of a 13/2 chance runs to 13/10, so a placed run hands back £23 on that £20 outlay. Three pounds, for having been right about the place. The win single is the better bet: £20 at 13/2 returns £150, a profit of £130.
A 13/2 chance in a twelve-runner Listed race can drift. Best Odds Guaranteed pays the bigger starting price if it does, and bet365 are running it for new and eligible customers.
bet365 Best Odds Guaranteed
Advertisement. Take a price on your selection and if the SP is bigger bet365 will pay you at the bigger odds. Available on Horse Racing. Applies to bets placed on Win and Each-Way Fixed Odds markets only. All racing in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong is excluded. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only. Registration required.
Read More
Prices differ from one firm to the next — it pays to shop around.
What Other Tipsters Are Saying
We gather the newspaper and online tipsters’ selections each race-day morning, and any for this race appear here once published. These are all their selections, not only their strongest fancies.
| Nap | 
Time
|
Racecourse
|
Tipster
|
Best odds |
|---|
Indicated odds were updated on 2026-10-16 4:38:03 UTC. Please note that
odds are subject to change.
Tips cannot guarantee betting success. Review tipsters performance and bet responsibly.
Tips cannot guarantee betting success. Review tipsters performance and bet responsibly.
How to Watch the Navigation Stakes Live
A funded bet365 account unlocks At The Races and Racing TV live, covering every UK, Irish and French race, this one included.
Watch at the races and racing TV live
#AD – Watch EVERY race in the UK and Ireland, live at bet365. bet365 stream all races shown on At The Races and Racing TV so you’ll never miss a second of the action! Only available to eligible customers who have a funded account or who have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Registration required.
Read More
On television, the Navigation Stakes is on Racing TV, a premium subscription channel. Free-to-air coverage had not been announced for this race at the time of writing.
The Verdict
Summer Is Tomorrow at 11/4 is the tip, a win single, confidence Strong — our reading of the form makes him the best horse in the race and the market agrees. The risk is that he was out of the places last time.
Caught U Sleeping at 13/2 is the second tip, confidence Speculative — a Listed winner carrying the 3lb that proves it, yet nine pounds off the best Racing Post Rating here. Take the win single: at her price the place terms pay next to nothing.
One caution over both: the ground may soften further, and we hold no going record for any of the twelve — a question for the field, not a mark against either.
Odds correct at time of writing, 2026-09-28 15:50 UTC. Prices change — always check the live table before betting. All tips and opinions here are our own. No bookmaker mentioned in this article has endorsed them. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
How we pick our tips
Every preview on betHQ starts from the betting market, not against it. The price a horse is trading at is the single best guide anyone has to its chance — it reflects the form book, the money and the opinion of people who do this for a living. So our first question is not “who wins?” but “does our own reading of the form agree with the market, and where doesn’t it?”
We rate every runner on five things: its Racing Post Rating, its Topspeed figure, its Official Rating, how it has run in its last three starts, and how it has fared against the other horses in this race when they have met. We then compare that order with the betting order. Handicaps work differently, because in those the official handicapper sets each horse’s weight from its official rating — so there we adjust the ratings for the weight carried on the day and leave the official rating out, rather than counting the same thing twice.
Most of the time we agree with the market about the likeliest winner, and we say so — across British and Irish racing the favourite wins roughly a third of all races. How often varies a great deal by the type of race, though. Favourites win appreciably more often in conditions races, where horses run off set weights, than in handicaps, where the handicapper’s whole job is to give every runner the same chance; and in the biggest fields their strike rate falls away sharply. That is our first tip. Where we differ is usually further down the betting, and if a horse looks better to us than its price suggests, and is good enough on ratings to be a realistic winner, it becomes our second tip. Some races only get one tip. That is fine.
We also tell you how we would back each one, because the bet you place matters as much as the horse you pick. A short-priced favourite and a 12/1 outsider call for different approaches, and the right bookmaker offer can improve either.
Two things to be clear about. The weightings above are our judgement, not a proven formula — we do not claim to beat the market over time, and nobody should treat our tips as a way to make money. And the prices we quote are the ones showing when we write, the evening before racing; they move, sometimes a lot, so always check the live table before you back anything. Please bet responsibly.
and then