October Stakes 2026: Preview, Betting Tips + How to Watch

The BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies’ & Mares’ Listed Race) is off at 13:15 at Ascot on Saturday 3 October, over seven furlongs, with a shade over £34,000 to the winner. Listed is the tier just below Group company, and the going is good, good to firm in places. Eight of the twelve are three-year-olds taking on four older mares.

Who’s Fancied — and Why

The betting makes So Regal a clear favourite at 11/10, the best price we found. The three-year-old won her first two starts of the year for John and Thady Gosden, a maiden and then a novice here at Ascot. She carries the highest official rating in this field — the handicapper’s measure of how good a horse has been — and her yard won this race twelve months ago.

Behind her at 8/1 is Dash Of Azure, the only one of the twelve who ran in last year’s race, when she was beaten a short head into second. The four-year-old trained by Ralph Beckett shares the best Racing Post Rating in the field with one rival, though her last two starts were poor.

Midnight Tango is 9/1, the best price we found: runner-up in the Commonwealth Cup Trial, a Group 3 here at Ascot in May, and the rival sharing that best Racing Post Rating. Albaydaa at 10/1, from William Haggas’s yard, is the one the betting fancies rather more than we do.

What the Racing Press Are Saying

Rory Paddock, who writes the Saturday television tips for Racing Daily, also lands on So Regal, arguing that her midfield finish last time reads worse than it was: she was not beaten far in a competitive race. He is more doubtful about Midnight Tango, whose step up to seven furlongs he does not think ideal.

Jon Vine, who tips for freetips.com, dissents, preferring American Gal at a long price. Most of the previews we read backed the favourite — several people reading the same card the same way, not separate pieces of evidence.

Our Read

We agree with the market and there is no sense dressing it up: So Regal is, we think, the best horse in the race. She drops from Group 3 company into Listed and from a mile back to seven furlongs, and she has already won at Ascot.

The weights are set, not handicapped, and simple. The eight three-year-olds carry 9st; the four older mares carry 9st 2lb. That two pounds is the weight-for-age allowance — the concession a younger horse gets for being less mature — and it is already in the printed weights. Nobody carries a penalty. Both our selections are three-year-olds, so they are the ones getting the two pounds.

The honest counter is that 11/10 leaves no room for a below-par run, and that she has yet to win at this level — though she was second in a Listed race at York in May, beaten a length and a half. Confidence Strong — we make her the best horse in the race and the market agrees; against her are a latest run that was unplaced and a Racing Post Rating two pounds short of the best. The ratings measure how good she has been; the counter-case asks whether that travels to today’s trip and track. Back her and you are trusting the better horse at a price that assumes she runs her race. That is reasonable. It is not free money.

Midnight Tango at 9/1 is the alternative, and worth being precise about. We and the betting both rate her among the leading few, so this is agreement rather than value: she is the biggest price of the horses both sides take seriously. Her latest run was a Listed sixth, and she has not won a stakes race. Seven furlongs is also further than she has been asked to go all season.

One more thing, because leaving it out would be dishonest. Awaken is 16/1, and our figures rate her a good deal higher than that. She is not a selection: our second tip goes only to a horse both we and the betting rate near the top, and the market has her well down its list. We would rather keep to that than talk you into a horse the betting has dismissed on information we may not hold, so read this as a disagreement we are declaring, not a third tip.

How to Bet This Race

Our Selection: So Regal, a win single at 11/10. Confidence Strong — the best horse in the race on our reading of it and the favourite in the betting, with an unplaced latest run and a Racing Post Rating two pounds short of the best against her. A £20 stake returns £42 if she wins, a profit of £22; if she is beaten, the £20 is gone.

The winnings boost on the block below pays a little more if she obliges. It does not make her likelier to win, which is worth saying at a short price.

The Each-Way Angle: Midnight Tango at 9/1. Confidence Fair, because this is agreement with the market rather than a bet against it — she is the biggest price of the few both we and the betting respect. Twelve runners and not a handicap means three places at a fifth of the odds; check your own firm’s terms.

A £20 win single returns £200 if she wins, a profit of £180. A £10 each-way bet costs £20: if she wins you get £128 back, a profit of £108; if she is second or third without winning you get £28 back, a profit of £8; out of the first three and the £20 is gone. Eight pounds for a placed run is thin against £180, so the instruction is the win single — but the each-way is a real bet if you would rather be paid for running close.

If places interest you, bet365’s Position Payout is the tool: it pays according to where your horse finishes, with the return for each position shown on their racecard.

Prices differ from firm to firm, and the gaps are real money, so it pays to shop around.

What Other Tipsters Are Saying

We collect the newspaper and online tipsters’ selections each race-day morning. These are all their picks for the 13:15, not only their strongest fancies.

How to Watch the October Stakes Live

William Hill stream UK racing live and for free.

It is on free-to-air television too: ITV name the race in their schedule, on ITV1 and STV, and it opens their coverage that day.

The Verdict

So Regal is the bet, a win single at 11/10, confidence Strong because our reading of the form and the betting agree she is the best horse in the race — the risk being that she was unplaced last time and the price gives you nothing back for it.

Midnight Tango at 9/1 is the alternative, confidence Fair because that is agreement with the market rather than value, at the biggest price of the horses both sides rate — and the risk is plain: seven furlongs is further than she has gone this season.

Odds correct at time of writing, 2026-10-02 16:58 UTC. Prices change — always check the live table before betting. All tips and opinions here are our own. No bookmaker mentioned in this article has endorsed them. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org