The Epsom Derby Stakes

Date	Time	Class	Distance
Sat 7th June 2025	15:30	Group 1	1m 4f 6y

The Epsom Derby Stakes is the most prestigious of the English Classics, serving as the country’s premier middle distance flat race for 3-year-old thoroughbreds.

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About the Epsom Derby Stakes

The Epsom Derby, commonly known as “The Derby,” is one of the most iconic and prestigious horse races in the world. Held annually on the first Saturday of June at Epsom Downs Racecourse in Surrey, England, it is a Group 1 flat race open to three-year-old colts and fillies. The race covers a distance of 1 mile, 4 furlongs, and 6 yards (2,420 meters), testing both the speed and endurance of its competitors.

Founded in 1780 by Edward Smith-Stanley, the 12th Earl of Derby, the race has a storied history and is a centerpiece of the British social and sporting calendar. It is the second leg of the English Triple Crown, preceded by the 2,000 Guineas and followed by the St Leger Stakes.

The Derby’s challenging course includes the infamous Tattenham Corner, making it a true test of a horse’s versatility and a jockey’s skill. Winning the Epsom Derby is considered one of the greatest achievements in thoroughbred racing, often leading to international acclaim and substantial breeding value for the victors.

Betting on the Epsom Derby Stakes

The Epsom Derby is amongst the most unpredictable top-tier 3-year-old thoroughbred races in the UK. The race tends to attract winners of early season 1 mile races like the 2,000 Guineas and its equivalents, as well as horses trained to run over middle distances who may be untested as 3-year-olds. With the performance of milers over the Derby distance uncertain, and scant form to work off for some of the middle distance runners, it is unsurprising to find that the markets rarely pick a winner and that wins by outsiders are relatively common.

In fact, price provides very little insight into how Derby entries will do, with horses priced 16/1 or higher winning the race more often than the favourites in the past decade. Two key trial races, the Dante Stakes and Lingfield Derby Trial, can both provide important cues for this race, and the winner of either race should be carefully considered if they make it to Epsom. If these horses do not appear in the Epsom Derby, target horses who showed staying potential as 2-year-olds by finishing strongly over shorter distances and come into this race overpriced and with strong staying pedigree in their bloodlines.

Epsom Derby Trends

These trends and insights are based on the 2000 – 2024 runnings of the Epsom Derby.

Statistic	What this means for you as a bettor
Favourites win 36 % and finish in the first three 64 % of the time.	Backing the race-favourite “blind” lands 1 win in 3, but two-thirds of favourites at least place. An each-way bet can give steadier returns than a straight win punt. Treat odds as your guide: Win-only when the favourite is shorter than 7-2, because the place half barely pays; switch to each-way from 4-1 and up (or whenever a bookie pays extra places) to lock in a worthwhile place return while keeping the win upside.
Nearly half of all winners started between 4-1 and 10-1 (mid-price range).	Don’t ignore runners that the market rates as solid but not spectacular. These mid-priced horses have produced more winners than short-priced favourites or longshots.
Outsiders (over 10-1) filled a place in 28 of the 75 podium spots.	Bigger prices frequently sneak into the top three. Look for bookmakers offering 4 or 5 places (many do on Derby day) and consider each-way bets on a couple of longshots to capitalise.
Eight odds-on/very short favourites failed to place (38 % of that group).	Short prices are not a guarantee. If a hot favourite looks vulnerable (poor draw, stamina doubts) you could: 1) “lay” it on an exchange, or 2) back two or three others each-way.
Middle draws (stalls 6-10) produced 12 of the 25 winners.	Once the draw is made, horses in the centre of the gate get a proven tactical edge round Epsom’s first bend. If you fancy two runners equally, side with the one in mid-draw.
Aidan O’Brien trained 10 winners (40 %).	Any O’Brien runner deserves close study—especially if Ryan Moore rides (they have won 4 together). They’re often well-found in the betting, but ignoring them can be costly.
Irish-bred horses account for 60 % of winners.	Ireland’s emphasis on classic middle-distance breeding shows. When in doubt between two profiles, an Irish-bred colt has the historical edge.
Field size is always 12-18 runners; standard place terms pay 1-2-3.	Because fields are big, bookmakers fight for custom with “extra-place” offers (sometimes 4 or 5 places). Grabbing those terms improves your each-way maths without lowering the odds.
Four of the last six runnings were won by the O’Brien-Moore combination.	Recency matters: this partnership is “hot”. Markets sometimes compress their price, but for exotics (forecast, tricast) you may still find value by locking them into one or two slots.

Disclaimer: Past results are not a guarantee. Trends show what has happened, not what will happen. Use trends as filters, not final answers. Combine them with up-to-date form study, going reports, draw, fitness, trainer comments, and your own judgement.

Recent Winners

Year	Winner	SP	Weight	Jockey	Trainer
2024	City Of Troy	3/1F	9-2	Ryan Moore	A P O’Brien
2023	Auguste Rodin	9/2	9-2	Ryan Moore	A P O’Brien
2022	Desert Crown	5/2F	9-2	Richard Kingscote	Sir Michael Stoute
2021	Adayar	16/1	9-0	Adam Kirby	Charlie Appleby
2020	Serpentine	25/1	9-0	Emmet McNamara	A P O’Brien
2019	Anthony Van Dyck	13/2	9-0	Seamie Heffernan	A P O’Brien
2018	Masar	16/1	9-0	William Buick	Charlie Appleby
2017	Wings Of Eagles	40/1	9-0	P B Beggy	A P O’Brien
2016	Harzand	13/2	9-0	Pat Smullen	D K Weld
2015	Golden Horn	13/8F	9-0	Frankie Dettori	John Gosden